Saturday, September 12, 2009

President raises tariffs on Chinese tires, could be sign of things to come

On Friday evening, after markets had closed, President Obama announced a measure that would add a 35 percent tariff, on top of the current four percent, on imported Chinese tires. Despite the obvious timing issues, doing it after markets close to limit the effect on stocks and securities, this issue reeks of a possible start to protectionism, which if not kept in check could seriously deepen the recession.
Going back to the Great Depression, many economists agree that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, deepened an economic crisis to biblical proportions.
The act itself raised tariffs on 3200 goods to a rate of 60 percent, causing backlash from other nations, who, in turn, raised tariffs on our exports. The stock market had just experienced "Black Thursday" a few months before, causing a recession with unemployment rates of nine percent. Many economists blame this movement to a protectionary state for causing the crash to begin with, because markets are always forward-looking.
"As soon as dealers in securities, who were constantly on the watch for indications as to business conditions, realized that this feeling of uneasiness (about the tariff bill) was spreading throughout industry, they began selling stocks," said Fred Kent, the 1929 Director of Bankers Trust Co.
Once the tariff act was placed into law in began a chain reaction of events that caused an international slow down in trade which contracted the economy even more. Consider that the unemployment rate, which had shown some signs of starting to improve before the act was passed, jumped from nine percent (about what it is currently)to 16 percent the year after the tariffs were passed.
I readily admit that one tariff is far from the extreme measures of the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, however this backroom Friday evening announcement should raise a red-flag about the administrations goals.
First, China has already reacted harshly, being suspicious of the Obama motives and wondering whether this will start a new trade war.
"China strongly opposes this serious act of trade protectionism by the U.S.," the statement on the Ministry of Commerce Web site said. "This act not only violates the rules of the World Trade Organization but also violates the relevant commitments made by the U.S. government at the G-20 financial summit."
Secondly, let's consider Obama the campaigner and his own statements from the 2008 campaign: Fact check: Obama never said we should support trade deals like NAFTA.
I fully understand that issue debates like free trade and tariffs are not hot-button rhetorical issues like health care and cap-and-trade. However this is as important, if not more important, to the future and continued recovery and we all should be watching with vetted interest.

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